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Russian blogger: Russian government mobilization would fail

Famous blogger Anatoly Nesmiyan (alias “El-Murid”) celebrates the half-anniversary of Putin’s special military operation. He continues to predict that it will end in calamitous failure. true, but it is a fact, and the regime should have realized the disparity of resources between Russia and the West. If the resources factor is important, the main problem of Russia is the incompetence of leadership, because senior officials are chosen on the basis of loyalty to the Therefore, it will be useless if the regime has responded to calls for institute total mobilization and move to a war economy. Managing a crisis or a disaster requires management skills that the most senior leaders lack.

Nesmiyan’s message follows below:[1]

Anatoly Nesmiyan (Source: Nastroy.net)

“During the first year of life, the happy parents celebrate each month of the child’s life. Then, after the first birthday, the birthdays are counted as they should be – according to each passing year. With an operation special, the story is the same: for now, we record all 24 days of every month, then it won’t matter.

“Six months of hostilities are in the past. It is not known how many lie ahead, but it seems that there can hardly be less. Strictly speaking, a special operation is when a group of special forces bursts into a building, clears the area and disappears into the calm night.The well-known beginning of the Afghan events of 79 began precisely with a special operation, when such a group entered [Hafizullah] Amin’s palace and solved the set task. When a difficult story of several months following the plot of the First World War or various Seven and Thirty Years’ Wars is called a special operation, it does not look very convincing, even if it is accompanied by savage fines and imprisonments.

“The fights have taken on an extended attrition format. That’s already a very obvious fact that can’t be explained otherwise, and it’s impossible to even fuel the show completely bruised. [broadcasting] provides assurance that everything is going as planned.

“It is useless to pretend that in such a struggle it is necessary to compare not the capabilities of Russia and Ukraine, but the capabilities of Russia and Ukraine+. Yes, of course, without outside help , Kyiv will not survive – but the aid is there, and but in this format, the competition between the economies of Russia and the coalition that opposes it seems quite simple: the [Russian] the economy, bled white by the regime, will not be able to withstand a prolonged conflict.

“Of course, there are movements by which the agony can be prolonged, but it is still the agony.

“However, in my opinion, the critical problem for the Kremlin regime is not the factor of resources (this is of course the determining factor, and even in all other equal circumstances, it will sooner or later lead to defeat Somewhat jokingly (though not a joke), this problem was brought up a long time ago: they recruited the Loyalists, but they interrogate them as if they were smart people. to kiss the boss’s boots is absolutely not the equivalent of managerial ability. However, in a personalized dictatorship, there is no other mechanism for personnel selection except through loyalty. Professional qualities are a secondary trait compared to this one.In no other system of personnel selection, the characters, who today glitter on the screens and in the media reports, are in the highest positions. [They are] incompetent, failures in all that is possible, pompous and worthless – but show selfless loyalty.

“A rhetorical question – are these people capable of handling a crisis or even a catastrophic situation? Of course not. In fact, they also created all these crises with the supreme leader. I confess that I will never understand how these people can solve the problems that they themselves have created by their tireless activity to destroy the country.

“Therefore, I tend to think that we will have the next six months of conflict ahead of us, and after them – the following [six months]. [It will go on] until everything collapses, either by virtue of failed and poor management, either the resource factor will play a role, or [perhaps] a combination of the two. All the steps by which they could try to prolong the agony and the convulsions will only prolong them, but at the same time, will make the situation even worse.

“At the same time, you have to understand that the regime is incapable and unable to manage projects. Any important decision is a project. Even if they decide to carry out a mobilization (which the ultra-patriotic public demands), they rush it and creating in its place one more unsolvable problem on top of all the existing ones. Of course, a number of people will be thrown into the meat grinder. Mobilize the industry? They too don’t know how to do it. And s they try, they will add a few more logs to the bonfire of fiery disaster. [they will add] not wooden [logs]but RDX [explosive ones] immediately with detonators.

“And here’s the truth: sooner or later this shit is going to explode – there’s just no doubt. The only question is when. No model can answer that question. If only because there are more variables in this system of equations than the equations themselves. . Much more. So, in a strict sense, it is impossible to solve such a system. But the answer is nevertheless known and understandable, the only thing is not to be mistaken.


[1] El-murid.livejournal.com, August 23, 2022.